Russia’s oil exports through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2026 have surpassed last year’s numbers by almost 50%. Approximately 20 million barrels have been transported to Asia from July to mid-October this year, according to traders and data analysis.
The NSR connects Russia’s western ports to Asian markets via icy Arctic waters, offering an alternative route that has become more appealing this year due to disruptions in other major routes like the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Black Sea region.
Record-high tanker freight rates have been reported, driven by conflicts with Iran and in Ukraine, leading to inflation and making U.S. crude oil less accessible to Asian refiners. As a result, refiners are turning to alternative sources from the Middle East and Latin America.
Despite the high tariffs for using the NSR, which requires icebreaker assistance, it has become a more cost-effective option compared to the traditional route through the Red Sea to Asia, as stated by traders.
For Russia, which oversees the NSR, this route offers a secure alternative to European waters where incidents of oil tanker arrests have occurred this year. Traders’ initial estimates suggest that the volume of Russian oil transported through the Arctic route is anticipated to increase by an additional five to 10 million barrels by the end of the navigation season.
Major oil company Gazprom Neft plans to boost its NSR shipments by approximately 35% this year compared to 2025, according to CEO Alexander Dyukov. Additionally, Russia is expected to increase its liquid natural gas (LNG) shipments to Asia via the NSR, especially following the commencement of Arctic LNG shipments.
During an economic forum in Vladivostok, President Vladimir Putin expressed Russia’s ambition to double cargo turnover via the NSR to 70 million tonnes annually by the end of the decade. The recent inauguration of Rosneft’s Vostok Oil project in northern Russia has already contributed to the escalating volumes transported through the NSR.
