Three major Canadian banks offered cautiously optimistic views on the economy on Thursday, in stark contrast to the concerns expressed by numerous smaller businesses dealing with the impact of a full-fledged trade war with the United States.
Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC disclosed their financial results ahead of Thursday’s market opening on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Collectively, these three banking behemoths hold assets totaling up to $6 trillion on their balance sheets. With extensive portfolios covering mortgages, auto loans, and various other financial products for individuals and enterprises, along with client networks spanning across Canada and the U.S., these financial giants have a unique perspective to assess the effects of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay, speaking during the bank’s quarterly conference call on Thursday morning, highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy. He noted positive shifts in employment and GDP in the second quarter, maintaining a cautious optimism for continued economic growth despite the ongoing uncertainties in trade relations between Canada and the U.S.
TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” of investment in Canada driven by government expenditures in infrastructure and national defense. He pointed out that there are over $1 trillion in announced projects approved or pending through 2035 and beyond, signaling significant investment opportunities in the country.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed a “measured confidence” for the latter half of 2026, emphasizing the evolving trade environment. The bank is closely monitoring Canada’s labor market for any signs of weakness amid the ongoing trade tensions.
Analysts at BMO Capital Markets anticipate that the latest round of U.S. tariffs could trim around half a percentage point from Canadian growth, primarily due to weakened business confidence and investment.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira also commended the resilience of Canada’s economy and lauded the government’s substantial investment plans and support measures for those affected by U.S. tariffs. He highlighted positive developments in areas such as energy, power infrastructure, and the recent icebreaker shipbuilding contract in Quebec.
Leaders from Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank separately described the Canada-U.S. trade war as manageable earlier in the week. The shares of Canada’s major banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to trade close to record highs, with the iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF, reflecting Canadian bank stocks, surging over 46% year-to-date.
