A surge in flu cases is on the rise, with new data indicating that Britain is heading towards its highest flu infection rates ever. The UK Health Security Agency reported a significant increase in the rate of flu-related hospital admissions in England, reaching 3.8 per 100,000 people last week compared to 2.4 in the previous week. This level of admissions is typically not seen until the peak season in December. By this time in 2024, the rate was only 1.1 per 100,000 people, while in 2023 it was 0.4, and in 2022, considered the worst flu season in a decade, it stood at 1.4.
The NHS has issued an urgent warning about the potential for the worst flu season on record this winter, with thousands of additional deaths possible, according to a hospital official. Data from the Royal College of GPs shows a continuous increase in presentations for flu-like symptoms, surpassing the seasonal average by 40 to 60%.
The rise in flu cases is particularly driven by children under 15, with infection rates double the national average for this time of year, as reported by GPs. Professor Kamila Hawthorne, chair of the Royal College of GPs, emphasized the early onset of flu and other respiratory viruses, urging caution as these illnesses can be more severe for vulnerable groups.
Regional data from 1,800 GP practices in England revealed that flu-like illness presentations are highest in the northern parts of the country, with all regions experiencing rates above the seasonal average. Surveillance data from the UKHSA also indicates a rise in flu infections, with an increase in positive flu tests both in hospitals and primary care settings.
Dr. Jamie Lopez Bernal, a Consultant Epidemiologist at UKHSA, highlighted the ongoing increase in flu cases among younger individuals despite the school half-term break, anticipating further rises as normal activities resume. Professor Hawthorne reiterated the importance of vaccination and basic self-care measures to manage flu symptoms effectively.
Internationally, Australia and Japan have faced severe flu outbreaks due to a mutated strain, H3N2, which has shown increased aggressiveness, impacting vaccine effectiveness. Sir Jim Mackey, chief executive of NHS England, warned of similar challenges ahead for the NHS based on Australia’s recent record flu season, signaling potential strain on hospital capacities from December through March.
