Chris Hughes serves as the Defence and Security Editor for the Daily Mirror. He was honored as the specialist journalist of the year in 2013 at the UK Press Awards. With extensive experience reporting from conflict zones such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Ukraine, and covering global terror attacks, Chris provides exclusive analysis on Substack – https://hostileworld.substack.com/
In a swift turn of events on Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin will transition from being a widely condemned figure, facing allegations of war crimes and international isolation, to reclaiming a prominent position on the global stage. The Russian populace, grappling with economic hardships, significant loss of life among male family members, and growing discontent, will witness Putin’s resurgence as a respected world leader.
Countries like China, Iran, and North Korea, varying degrees of allies with Moscow, will also witness Putin’s reemergence after a period of absence from global affairs. By strategically engaging with Trump, Putin has positioned himself favorably, prioritizing the interests of Russians, followed by China, North Korea, and Iran. The concessions already made by Trump to Putin set the stage for a meeting that appears to be more of a display of submission than progress towards peace.
Having gained considerable leverage over Trump regarding Ukraine, Putin is likely to prolong the facade of cooperation while continuing to pursue his agenda. Recent warnings of nuclear conflict following intensified attacks on Ukraine underscore Putin’s aggressive stance.
Initially intended as a result of Putin’s agreement to meet Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, the meeting was unlikely to materialize as Putin outmaneuvered Trump. Putin’s misguided belief in his military successes in Ukraine overlooks the reality of mounting challenges and potential setbacks, notably in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces face resilient Ukrainian defenses.
Despite tactical maneuvers, Russian forces encounter difficulties as Ukrainian counterattacks disrupt supply chains and target key military assets. The strategic shortcomings in Putin’s approach, marked by aggressive targeting of civilian areas, risk diminishing morale and underestimating Ukraine’s resolve.
Putin’s persistence in the conflict reflects a disconnect from the actual realities on the ground, potentially leading to adverse consequences for Russia. With a strained economy and dwindling military resources, sustaining the current offensive becomes increasingly untenable for Russia in the long run.
The deteriorating quality of Russian troops, coupled with coercive tactics and internal dissent, highlights the challenges faced by Putin’s military campaign. The toll of the conflict on both manpower and resources raises concerns about the sustainability of Russia’s aggressive posture.
As the conflict in Ukraine persists, the balance of power may shift rapidly if Ukraine maintains its defensive stance. Alternatively, a prolonged standoff akin to the situation between the two Koreas could ensue
