The World Meteorological Organization has warned that the El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to escalate through 2027 and could potentially become the most intense on record, leading to increased chances of extreme weather events next year. According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, if the current trend continues, this El Niño could surpass any previous occurrences in the last four decades.
The UN weather agency has indicated a nearly 100% certainty that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This high level of confidence in the forecast is unprecedented, as stated by the WMO.
A powerful El Niño can cause significant disruptions in global rainfall and temperature patterns, contributing to the formation of severe weather phenomena such as typhoons. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the unprecedented scale of the current El Niño, highlighting the rapid warming of the planet.
El Niño, characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakened trade winds, occurs naturally every two to seven years and typically lasts up to 12 months, affecting precipitation levels and causing droughts in Latin America.
The ongoing El Niño has already impacted agricultural regions in tropical areas, resulting in a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO predicts that El Niño will peak later this year but its effects will extend into 2027, leading to elevated global temperatures.
In response to these forecasts, the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives to mitigate the potential impacts of the intensifying El Niño. Secretary-General Saulo reiterated the organization’s commitment to collaborating with UN partners and the humanitarian system to provide essential climate intelligence for disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
Overall, the intensification of El Niño poses significant challenges, necessitating proactive measures to address the potential consequences of the extreme weather events expected in the coming year.
