Australian scientists have created a groundbreaking online tool that can predict the environmental impact of fossil fuel projects on the climate. The tool, known as the Carbon Impacts Tracer, can assess how activities like mines or offshore oil platforms will contribute to global warming, glacier melting, and potential human fatalities.
According to Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate science professor at the Australian National University, the Carbon Impacts Tracer links the emissions of individual fossil fuel projects to their specific impact on global temperatures and subsequent consequences. By utilizing carbon dioxide emission data from project proposals and scientific studies, the tool estimates the effects on global temperature rise and calculates real-world impacts such as coral reef depletion, food production declines, and job losses.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer was recently launched with case studies on several Australian projects, one in the U.K., and a focus on the proposed Bay du Nord offshore oil project in Canada. The tool predicts that the Bay du Nord project, led by Equinor, could result in 188 megatonnes of CO2 emissions over 20 years, contributing minimally to global temperature rise. It also forecasts increased heat exposure for over 111,000 individuals, 25 heat-related deaths in Europe, glacier loss equivalent to 4.6 square kilometers, and the loss of approximately 2,100 jobs leading to extreme poverty for 9,800 people.
Joel Finnis, a climatologist at Memorial University, highlighted the tool’s significance in consolidating research findings for public understanding and emphasized the environmental repercussions of projects like Bay du Nord. Maria Nawaz from the University of New South Wales emphasized the tool’s potential to enhance climate litigation and accountability for emissions from fossil fuel projects.
The Carbon Impacts Tracer provides valuable insights for governments, regulators, and the public when evaluating proposed energy developments. It offers a direct connection between fossil fuel projects and their environmental impacts, challenging the notion that individual projects have an insignificant contribution to emissions. Insurers and economists can also utilize the tool to assess risk and project economic implications.
The tool currently focuses on proposed projects, with plans to expand its coverage as more data becomes available.
