Health officials in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing anonymized mobile-phone data to track population movements and predict potential areas where the Ebola virus could spread next, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative approach, a first in Ebola response efforts, is being employed as authorities grapple with what the WHO has labeled as the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record. The outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, has resulted in over 6,250 infections and 3,039 fatalities across six provinces since its declaration on May 15.
Given the absence of approved vaccines or treatments for this Ebola species, monitoring population movements has become crucial to foreseeing emerging cases and efficiently deploying surveillance and response resources.
Olivier Le Polain, in charge of epidemiology and analytics for response at the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of understanding population movements in the current epidemic. The conventional risk assessments, focusing on outbreak epicenters, are being augmented by analyzing mobility data to pinpoint potential risks in geographically distant yet interconnected areas.
The analysis, conducted by Swedish non-profit Flowminder, leverages anonymized mobile phone records to estimate travel patterns as individuals connect to various telecommunications network antennas while moving around the country. This data, made available by Vodacom, the leading telecom operator in Congo, aids in understanding how infectious individuals might spread through their movements.
Flowminder founder Linus Bengtsson clarified that the organization only receives aggregated and anonymized data, ensuring individual subscriber information remains inaccessible. The initial analysis conducted in June focused on areas where the outbreak originated and revealed significant travel flows to nearby regions, where subsequent Ebola cases were confirmed.
As the outbreak expanded beyond its initial hub, Flowminder extended its analysis to additional affected areas, identifying potential high-risk travel destinations. Kisangani, a crucial transportation hub on the Congo River, emerged as a notable location of interest due to its connectivity with various regions.
Recent studies have underscored the connectivity between Kisangani and Kinshasa, as well as other settlements along the Congo River and bordering countries, raising concerns about potential spread to Congo’s capital and neighboring regions. The WHO continues to caution about the risk of the outbreak spreading further, with modeling exercises suggesting a considerable probability of cases emerging in Kinshasa.
While the current analysis heavily relies on data from a single telecom operator, efforts are underway to collaborate with other operators to enhance coverage and obtain more comprehensive movement data across international borders.
