Experts have repeatedly issued warnings about potential future aggression from Russia under Vladimir Putin towards NATO countries. Now, a particular expert has raised concerns about the vulnerability of two European nations.
Various indicators have been pointed out, suggesting potential targets for a Russian military offensive that could potentially escalate into a global conflict. Concerns have been voiced by a range of experts, including NATO officials, military analysts, and other defense authorities.
NATO’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte, in June, expressed the belief that Russia might resort to the use of force against the alliance within the next five years. This raises questions about potential targets for Putin and the telltale signs that may precede such actions.
The Baltic states have frequently been identified as potential entry points for a Russian incursion into NATO territory. Worries persist that a potential resolution in the Ukrainian conflict, allowing Russia to maintain control of occupied eastern Ukraine, could embolden Putin’s military and lead to advancements towards former Soviet territories.
Analysts assess that the Baltic states, particularly Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia, could be at significant risk, providing Russia with strategic access to the sea and posing a potential threat to neighboring Nordic countries, Poland, and Germany.
Former intelligence officer Philip Ingram has pointed out a vulnerable area for a potential attack known as the Suwalki Gap, often referred to as ‘NATO’s Achilles heel.’ This narrow 60-mile stretch between Lithuania and Poland could serve as a direct route for Russian forces moving from Belarus to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, potentially isolating the Baltic states from their allies.
Ingram highlighted the escalating Russian military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus, with increased military exercises and unconventional troop movements, including tactics like GPS interference and incitement of unrest among Russian-speaking minorities.
Reports indicate that military analysts in affected regions are exploring defensive strategies for the Suwalki Gap and other vulnerable areas in the Baltic states. One proposed defense tactic involves utilizing waterlogged peatlands in Europe as a deterrent against invading forces, although concrete actions are still under discussion.
However, not all experts share the same view regarding the susceptibility of the Suwalki Gap. Some argue that its actual strategic importance is limited, casting doubts on the extent of its vulnerability to potential Russian aggression.
Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there were significant troop buildups along Ukraine’s borders, signaling potential aggressive intentions. Similar patterns could emerge as indicators of Moscow’s intentions to launch an attack.
Misleading claims by the Kremlin, such as allegations of genocide in Ukraine’s Donbas region and the need for “de-nazification” of Ukraine, were used to justify the invasion. However, these claims were debunked, with minimal far-right representation in Ukraine’s government at the time of the invasion.
Russia’s discontent over NATO’s expansion towards its borders has been a recurring issue, with claims that promises made in 1990 to prevent such expansions were not upheld. The expansion of NATO has been a contentious point, with differing interpretations of historical agreements.
In the event of a NATO invasion, Russia may engage in hybrid warfare tactics, including attacks on critical infrastructure like undersea communication cables. The vulnerability of the UK’s undersea cables has been highlighted, raising concerns about potential sabotage.
Recent statements from EU officials have underscored Russia’s direct threats to the European Union through acts of sabotage and cyber warfare. Incidents of airspace violations, military provocations, and attacks on critical infrastructure have heightened tensions between Russia and the EU.
NATO has also expressed concerns over deliberate damage to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea, with multiple incidents reported. While not directly attributing blame to Russia, NATO warns of the risks associated with hybrid warfare tactics aimed at destabilizing countries through various means.
The ongoing discussions surrounding the security of undersea infrastructure and the need to safeguard critical communication networks reflect the evolving threat landscape posed by potential adversaries like Russia, requiring proactive defense measures to mitigate risks.
